Politics
#USCongress
#Election
#Trump
#Biden
Science
#science
#research
#nasa
#space
#biology
#chemistry
#physics
#astronomy
#geology
ACX Predictions for 2022
Scott Alexander's predictions for 2022 from Astral Codex Ten.
AI
#MachineLearning
#GAN
#DeepLearning
#DeepMind
#OpenAI
#GoogleBrain
Manifold Markets
This fold is for markets about the Manifold Markets platform.
Existential Risk
Markets about risks to the future of the human race
Rat Social
Rationalists betting about gossip.
Geopolitics
Markets covering geopolitics and international relations.
Crypto
#Blockchain
#crypto
#blockchain
#bitcoin
#ethereum
#solana
Russia Ukraine
Markets about the ongoing conflict between Russia & Ukraine.
COVID
Markets about COVID-19 and the pandemic.
Glowfic
Role playing fiction writing community
Metaforecasting
Forecasts about forecasts, forecasting, forecasting platforms.
Arbitrage Opportunitys
This fold exists to find and surface arbitrage opportunitys
Markets for Moving
Markets that you can manipulate through RL actions. They aren't just markets, they're personal challenges.
#movethismarket
#challenge
Georgism
#Housing
#housing
#georgism
#landvaluetax
#LVT
#lvt
#LandValueTax
Smol Beans
Little just-for-fun markets that resolve quickly and simply.
#quick
#soon
#simple
#smol
#fast
Economics
The dismal community
2024 US presidential election
For markets & discussion following the upcoming 2024 election!
#President
#2024
#Trump
#Biden
Wall Street Bets
#Stocks
#Finance
#Trading
#WSB
#Market
#Economy
Feature Requests
Markets which are proposing new features for Manifold to implement.
#feature_requests
#BugReports
#bug_reports
#features
#SiteMechanics
#FeatureRequest
Relationships
Speculation on intimate relationships. Respect consent and privacy! Only share info the relevant parties are comfortable with!
#dating
#hookups
#sex
#romance
#marriage
#matchmaking
#shipping
USA
#usa
#America
#American
#UnitedStates
#unitedstates
#Texas
#California
Fusion
Predictions on when fusion projects will reach important milestones
Derivatives
Fold for prediction market derivatives and other instances of financial wizardry.
Texas
#Houston
#Austin
#Dallas
#SanAntonio
Markets NOT for Moving
Markets that you can manipulate through RL actions, but shouldn't.
#dontmovethismarket
#donotmovethismarket
#death
ACX
Unofficial community for markets centered on Scott Alexander's blog Astral Codex Ten ( https://astralcodexten.substack.com/ ).
Commitments
Markets for personal commitments/challenges - bet on your own success and take the naysayers' money!
#commitment
#PersonalCommitment
SuperShortTerm
Markets resolving in less than 1 week.
Magic the Gathering
Markets related to the card game Magic: The Gathering.
Supreme Court
Markets about the US Supreme Court
Oscars
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Academy_Awards
Matt Yglesias 2022 Predictions
Matt Yglesias' predictions for 2022 from his blog Slow Boring.
Short Term
Markets that resolve in the near future -- Generally, 1 month or less.
SciPapers
This is a community to help find citeable knowlege, or to establish that a certain piece of knowlege is hard to find.
#science
#biology
#neuroscience
Manifold Plays Wordle
An Experiment in Futarchy; inspired by Twitch Plays Pokemon (and Wordle, ofc)
Health
Markets to speculate on the best way to achieve optimal health
#exercise
#diet
#drugs
#nootropics
#medicine
#physiology
#science
#disease
Whale Bait
For bets that are just basically begging for people to invest in them and nothing else.
Switzerland
Referenda, elections, economics, culture, and other Switzerland-related markets
Apple
About Apple Inc.
Baseball
Predictions related to the game of baseball.
Russia Kyiv
Markets in #RussiaUkraine which are specifically about Kyiv (e.g. Russia invading Kyiv).
Brexit
Brexit uncertainty
#UnitedKingdom
#UK
#EU
#EuropeanUnion
#NorthernIreland
Canada
For predictions related to the country of Canada, its provinces, and its government.
#Ontario
#Quebec
#Ottawa
#Alberta
Joe Rogan
Markets directly or indirectly about Joe Rogan
Fantasy Football
Markets about NFL fantasy football.
Vox Predictions for 2022
Vox Future Perfect's predictions for 2022
Hearthstone
Relating to the online card game Hearthstone
Psychedelics
For markets related to the recreational, spiritual, therapeutic, and clinical use of psychedelics.
#Psychedelic
#MDMA
#Psilocybin
#LSD
Manifold Indices
Bets Based Upon Accuracy of Indices of the Highest Volume Manifold Bets
Music
A community to track markets for music suggestions
#suggestions
#bach
#classicalmusic
#codingmusic
Super Bowl
Markets about the NFL Super Bowl
MIT Community
Markets which relate to the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in some way.
Improperly Resolved
Collection of markets that are resolved contrary to their description and the outcome.
Sin Stocks
Incentivizing bad behavior. Social offense. Utility hedging. All these things lead to suboptimal bets. Take advantage!
Machine Generated or Real Time Data
Bets based off of Machine Generated or Real Time Data
Mars
Bets about Mars
Northern Rats
Semi-private markets amongst friends. Of course, we're all friends here.
MetaculusBot
Markets on Metaculus questions, resolved according to Metaculus's judgement
Scandinavia
#Norway
#Sweden
#Denmark
#Iceland
#Finland
Basketball
Markets about the game of basketball. NCAA, NBA, Olympics, FIBA, etc.
Bounties
Markets used to incentivize a service
Ophelia social
Questions that are "about me" in some sense. I just want to stare at the leaderboard of who's best at predicting those things!
Andrew Eaddy
Finance, Geopolitics, Sports
#Politics
#Economics
#Sports
#Geopolitics
Potential Fraud
To tag users who create markets you think have a decent chance of being fraudulent
World Cup
FIFA World Cup: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIFA_World_Cup
Transactions
Markets that are less about prediction.
Fraud
Bets about Fraud or Dispute Accusations on Manifold Markets, or in the World in General
Bugs and Errors
Bugs and Errors on the Manifold Platform